Strengths: A well-written investigation. Good use of references to support an original inquiry.

Points for consideration:

  1. Be careful saying “there is significant evidence” without a test. Stationarity is a slippery thing (e.g., Notes Q3.5).

  2. Trend: model is missing error term. More importantly, if the AIC is based on a white noise error model (which seems to be the case) that is problematic.

  3. Several roots are very close to the unit circle.